Thursday, August 15, 2013

Chaos in Egypt

It's hard to believe the kind of chaos and violence we are witnessing in Egypt could ever visit the United States.  However, mob mentalities with blind allegiances and no ability to reason can cause a breakdown in the strongest of civil orders.  Americans are not immune to such extreme behavior and we shouldn't look at Egypt with arrogant disdain for their disorder.  There but for the grace of God goes our country.  

One of the biggest deterrents to civil breakdown is a strong economy.  When people work they have dignity and the means to live.  Personal income generates taxes, which pay for basic services offered by most governments like safety protection (fire, police, etc.), roads, education, etc.  Utilities (light, power, water) function in healthy ways when the economy is moving in a positive direction as opposed to disruptions in service because of hostilities.  

As you watch the coverage of the chaos in Egypt you quickly wonder, "How are these people getting off work to do this?" or, "How can they afford to do this?"  They aren't and they can't!  Egypt's economy was tanking before the now-deposed, Morsi government took over from the cronyism and abuse of the Mubarak years.   Hafez Ghanem wrote a prophetic piece on the ailing Egyptian economy for the Brookings Institution in January.  His words sounded a haunting alarm for the future prospects of a country in the middle of an economic chaos:


Taking difficult stabilization measures is necessary because Egypt is facing a macroeconomic crisis. The fiscal deficit is about 12 percent of GDP, the public debt has ballooned to 80 percent of GDP, international reserves barely cover three months of imports and the Egyptian pound is under increasing pressure. As a result investment and growth are down, unemployment is up, prices of basic necessities are rising, and fuel shortages and electricity blackouts are common occurrences. Egyptians are worse off than they were two years ago. They have been patient, and have accepted temporary economic hardship as the price of freedom and democracy. But how long will this patience last?
Ghanem nailed it!  It was only a matter of time before the 45-million lower-income Egyptians making a meager $2-4/day would rebel.   Add steep ethnic and religious differences to the pot and you've got the perfect prescription for civil disorder.  While not immune to disagreement, healthy economies tend to absorb political and religious differences in ways poor economies cannot.  When the economy is down the tubes political, ethnic, and religious differences are magnified.  It's a fertile soil for civil unrest because actions are now dictated by differences, not potentially unifying strengths focused on seeking solutions to economic challenges.  You are either with us, or against us! becomes the majority slogan.  

Watching churches and businesses being burned is heartbreaking.  500+ people killed in one day is not only a national tragedy, but clear proof that government is not working.  When a government fails to respect and protect its people it ceases to function.  Imagine having little to no income, zero prospects for employment, a government that does not represent you and seeing your fellow citizens slaughtered.  Desperation begins to drive the bus.  It's not too hard to figure how entire groups of people join the protest, or how those in the minority flee the country.  The voice of reason and sanity is drowned by the voice/actions of protest.  


The answers to Egypt's problems are complicated.  There is no "quick-fix".  Civil order has to be restored, but there has to be an intentional plan that relies on strategies for economic stimulus, civil and human rights protection beyond strong-armed military tactics.  People need to see hope beyond the barrel of a gun.  The Middle East can ill afford a civil war torn Egypt, once a thriving leader in education, commerce, industry, the arts and trade.  


Western Christ-followers must pray for our brothers and sisters under religious and ethnic persecution in Egypt.  Pray for their safety, protection and freedom.  Pray that American leaders and diplomats will make wise policy decisions in regard to Egypt.  Pray for missionaries on the field.  Pray for the liberating power of the Gospel to advance in the land that has played a prominent role among God's people since Abraham.  




No comments: